Financial Year 23 GDP Growth Estimated at 7.4 pc Says Ficci’s Economic Outlook Survey 

According to Ficci’s Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday, India’s GDP is expected to rise at 7.4% in the financial year 2022-23, with rising prices prompted by the Russia-Ukraine war posing the biggest barrier to the global economic recovery. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is predicted to begin a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, according to the survey, with a repo rate hike of 50-75 basis points expected before the end of the current financial year.

According to the survey, the RBI is projected to maintain its support for the ongoing economic recovery by leaving the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review.

“The current round of Ficci’s Economic Outlook Survey forecasts annual median GDP growth of 7.4 percent for 2022-23, with lowest and highest growth estimates of 6% and 7.8%, respectively,” the industry group said.

For 2022-23, the median growth prediction for agriculture and related activities is 3.3 percent. The manufacturing and service industries are expected to rise by 5.9% and 8.5 percent, respectively.

The downside risks to growth, on the other hand, remain elevated, according to the report.

While the COVID-19 pandemic remains a threat, the study found that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is creating a substantial impediment to global recovery.

The biggest risk posed by the ongoing conflict is a rise in international commodity prices, as Russia and Ukraine are worldwide producers of vital commodities, according to the report. If the violence persists, it will wreak havoc on major raw material supply, including crude oil, natural gas, food, fertilizers, and metals, according to the report.

According to the experts who took part in the study, global inflation is expected to peak in the first half of 2022 and then moderate.

Because India is a net importer of energy, the dramatic jump in crude prices has had a substantial impact on the country’s macroeconomic framework. Furthermore, the impact on the economy is projected to worsen if the conflict continues, according to the report.

In March of this year, Ficci’s Economic Outlook Survey was held to measure the reaction from economists representing industries such as manufacturing, banking, and financial services. According to the report, the economists were asked to anticipate important macroeconomic factors for 2022-23, Q4 (January-March) of FY22, and Q1 (April-June) of FY23.