BUDGET 2022: Key Highlights of Economic Survey 2021-2022

The Union Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2021-22 in Parliament today. The highlights of the Economic Survey are as follows:

State of the Economy:

• Indian economy estimated to grow by 9.2 percent in real terms in 2021-22 (as per first advanced estimates) subsequent to a contraction of 7.3 percent in 2020-21.
• GDP projected to grow by 8- 8.5 percent in real terms in 2022-23.
• The year ahead poised for a pickup in private sector investment with the financial system in good position to provide support for economy’s revival.
• Projection comparable with World Bank and Asian Development Bank’s latest forecasts of real GDP growth of 8.7 percent and 7.5 percent respectively for 2022-23.
• As per IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projections, India’s real GDP projected to grow at 9 percent in 2021-22 and 2022-23 and at 7.1 percent in 2023-2024, which would make India the fastest growing major economy in the world for all 3years.
• Agriculture and allied sectors expected to grow by 3.9 percent; industry by 11.8 percent and services sector by 8.2 percent in 2021-22.
• On demand side, consumption estimated to grow by 7.0 percent, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) by 15 percent, exports by 16.5 percent and imports by 29.4 percent in 2021-22.
• Macroeconomic stability indicators suggest that the Indian Economy is well placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23.
• Combination of high foreign exchange reserves, sustained foreign direct investment, and rising export earnings will provide adequate buffer against possible global liquidity tapering in 2022-23.
• Economic impact of “second wave” was much smaller than that during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21, though health impact was more severe.
• Government of India’s unique response comprised of safety-nets to cushion the impact on vulnerable sections of society and the business sector, significant increase in capital expenditure to spur growth and supply side reforms for a sustained long-term expansion.
• Government’s flexible and multi-layered response is partly based on an “Agile” framework that uses feedback-loops, and the use of eighty High Frequency Indicators (HFIs) in an environment of extreme uncertainty.

Fiscal Developments:

• The revenue receipts from the Central Government (April to November, 2021) have gone up by 67.2 percent (YoY) as against an expected growth of 9.6 percent in the 2021-22 Budget Estimates (over 2020-21 Provisional Actuals).
• Gross Tax Revenue registers a growth of over 50 percent during April to November, 2021 in YoY terms.  This performance is strong compared to pre-pandemic levels of 2019-2020 also.
• During April-November 2021, Capex has grown by 13.5 percent (YoY) with focus on infrastructure-intensive sectors.
• Sustained revenue collection and a targeted expenditure policy has contained the fiscal deficit for April to November, 2021 at 46.2 percent of BE.
• With the enhanced borrowings on account of COVID-19, the Central Government debt has gone up from 49.1 percent of GDP in 2019-20 to 59.3 percent of GDP in 2020-21, but is expected to follow a declining trajectory with the recovery of the economy.

External Sectors:

• India’s merchandise exports and imports rebounded strongly and surpassed pre-COVID levels during the current financial year.
• There was significant pickup in net services with both receipts and payments crossing the pre-pandemic levels, despite weak tourism revenues.
• Net capital flows were higher at US$ 65.6 billion in the first half of 2021-22, on account of continued inflow of foreign investment, revival in net external commercial borrowings, higher banking capital and additional special drawing rights (SDR) allocation.
• India’s external debt rose to US $ 593.1 billion at end-September 2021, from US $ 556.8 billion a year earlier, reflecting additional SDR allocation by IMF, coupled with higher commercial borrowings.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves crossed US$ 600 billion in the first half of 2021-22 and touched US $ 633.6 billion as of December 31, 2021.
• As of end-November 2021, India was the fourth largest forex reserves holder in the world after China, Japan and Switzerland.

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation:

• The liquidity in the system remained in surplus.
  • Repo rate was maintained at 4 per cent in 2021-22.
  • RBI undertook various measures such as G-Sec Acquisition Programme and Special Long-Term Repo Operations to provide further liquidity.
• The economic shock of the pandemic has been weathered well by the commercial banking system:
  • YoY Bank credit growth accelerated gradually in 2021-22 from 5.3 per cent in April 2021 to 9.2 per cent as on 31^st December 2021.
  • The Gross Non-Performing Advances ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) declined from 11.2 per cent at the end of 2017-18 to 6.9 per cent at the end of September, 2021.
  • Net Non-Performing Advances ratio declined from 6 percent to 2.2 per cent during the same period.
  • Capital to risk-weighted asset ratio of SCBs continued to increase from 13 per cent in 2013-14 to 16.54 per cent at the end of September 2021.
  • The Return on Assets and Return on Equity for Public Sector Banks continued to be positive for the period ending September 2021.
• Exceptional year for the capital markets:
  • Rs. 89,066 crore was raised via 75 Initial Public Offering (IPO) issues in April-November 2021, which is much higher than in any year in the last decade.
  • Sensex and Nifty scaled up to touch peak at 61,766 and 18,477 on October 18, 2021.
  • Among major emerging market economies, Indian markets outperformed peers in April-December 2021.

Prices and Inflation:

• The average headline CPI-Combined inflation moderated to 5.2 per cent in 2021-22 (April-December) from 6.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2020-21.
  • The decline in retail inflation was led by easing of food inflation.
  • Food inflation averaged at a low of 2.9 per cent in 2021-22 (April to December) as against 9.1 per cent in the corresponding period last year.
  • Effective supply-side management kept prices of most essential commodities under control during the year.
  • Proactive measures were taken to contain the price rise in pulses and edible oils.
  • Reduction in central excise and subsequent cuts in Value Added Tax by most States helped ease petrol and diesel prices.
• Wholesale inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 12.5 per cent during 2021-22 (April to December).
  •  This has been attributed to:
    • Low base in the previous year,
    • Pick-up in economic activity,
    • Sharp increase in international prices of crude oil and other imported inputs, and
    • High freight costs.
• Divergence between CPI-C and WPI Inflation:
  • The divergence peaked to 9.6 percentage points in May 2020.
  • However, this year there was a reversal in divergence with retail inflation falling below wholesale inflation by 8.0 percentage points in December 2021.
  • This divergence can be explained by factors such as:
    • Variations due to base effect,
    • Difference in scope and coverage of the two indices,
    • Price collections,
    • Items covered,
    • Difference in commodity weights, and
    • WPI being more sensitive to cost-push inflation led by imported inputs.
  • With the gradual waning of base effect in WPI, the divergence in CPI-C and WPI is also expected to narrow down.

Sustainable Development and Climate Change:

• India’s overall score on the NITI Aayog SDG India Index and Dashboard improved to 66 in 2020-21 from 60 in 2019-20 and 57 in 2018-19.
• Number of Front Runners (scoring 65-99) increased to 22 States and UTs in 2020-21 from 10 in 2019-20.
• In North East India, 64 districts were Front Runners and 39 districts were Performers in the NITI Aayog North-Eastern Region District SDG Index 2021-22.
• India has the tenth largest forest area in the world.
• In 2020, India ranked third globally in increasing its forest area during 2010 to 2020.
• In 2020, the forests covered 24% of India’s total geographical, accounting for 2% of the world’s total forest area.
• In August 2021, the Plastic Waste Management Amendment Rules, 2021, was notified which is aimed at phasing out single use plastic by 2022.
• Draft regulation on Extended Producer Responsibility for plastic packaging was notified.
• The Compliance status of Grossly Polluting Industries (GPIs) located in the Ganga main stem and its tributaries improved from 39% in 2017 to 81% in 2020.
• The consequent reduction in effluent discharge has been from 349.13 millions of litres per day (MLD) in 2017 to 280.20 MLD in 2020.
• The Prime Minister, as a part of the national statement delivered at the 26^th Conference of Parties (COP 26) in Glasgow in November 2021, announced ambitious targets to be achieved by 2030 to enable further reduction in emissions.
• The need to start the one-word movement ‘LIFE’ (Lifestyle for Environment) urging mindful and deliberate utilization instead of mindless and destructive consumption was underlined.

Agriculture and Food Management:

• The Agriculture sector experienced buoyant growth in past two years, accounting for a sizeable 18.8% (2021-22) in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the country registering a growth of 3.6% in 2020-21 and 3.9% in 2021-22.
• Minimum Support Price (MSP) policy is being used to promote crop diversification.
• Net receipts from crop production have increased by 22.6% in the latest Situation Assessment Survey (SAS) compared to SAS Report of 2014.
• Allied sectors including animal husbandry, dairying and fisheries are steadily emerging to be high growth sectors and major drivers of overall growth in agriculture sector.
• The Livestock sector has grown at a CAGR of 8.15% over the last five years ending 2019-20. It has been a stable source of income across groups of agricultural households accounting for about 15% of their average monthly income.
• Government facilitates food processing through various measures of infrastructure development, subsidized transportation and support for formalization of micro food enterprises.
• India runs one of the largest food management programmes in the world.
• Government has further extended the coverage of food security network through schemes like PM Gareeb Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY).

Industry and Infrastructure:

• Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew at 17.4 percent (YoY) during April-November 2021 as compared to (-)15.3 percent in April-November 2020.
• Capital expenditure for the Indian railways has increased to Rs. 155,181 crores in 2020-21 from an average annual of Rs. 45,980 crores during 2009-14 and it has been budgeted to further increase to Rs. 215,058 crores in 2021-22 – a five times increase in comparison to the 2014 level.
• Extent of road construction per day increased substantially in 2020-21 to 36.5 Kms per day from 28 Kms per day in 2019-20 – a rise of 30.4 percent.
• Net profit to sales ratio of large corporates reached an all-time high of 10.6 percent in in July-September quarter of 2021-22 despite the pandemic (RBI Study).
• Introduction of Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, major boost provided to infrastructure-both physical as well as digital, along with measures to reduce transaction costs and improve ease of doing business, would support the pace of recovery.

Services:

• GVA of services crossed pre-pandemic level in July-September quarter of 2021-22; however, GVA of contact intensive sectors like trade, transport, etc. still remain below pre-pandemic level.
• Overall service Sector GVA is expected to grow by 8.2 percent in 2021-22.
• During April-December 2021, rail freight crossed its pre-pandemic level while air freight and port traffic almost reached their pre-pandemic levels, domestic air and rail passenger traffic are increasing gradually – shows impact of second wave was much more muted as compared to during first wave.
• During the first half of 2021-22, service sector received over US$ 16.7 billion FDI – accounting for almost 54 percent of total FDI inflows into India.
• IT-BPM services revenue reached US$ 194 billion in 2020-21, adding 1.38 lakh employees during the same period.
• Major government reforms include, removing telecom regulations in IT-BPO sector and opening up of space sector to private players.
• Services exports surpassed pre-pandemic level in January-March quarter of 2020-21 and grew by 21.6 percent in the first half of 2021-22 – strengthened by global demand for software and IT services exports.
• India has become 3^rd largest start-up ecosystem in the world after US and China. Number of new recognized start-ups increased to over 14000 in 2021-22 from 733 in 2016-17.
• 44 Indian start-ups have achieved unicorn status in 2021 taking overall tally of unicorns to 83, most of which are in services sector.

Social Infrastructure and Employment:

• 157.94 crore doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered as on 16^th January 2022; 91.39 crore first dose and  66.05 crore second dose.
• With revival of economy, employment indicators bounced back to pre-pandemic levels during last quarter of 2020-21.
• As per the quarterly Periodic Labor Force Survey (PFLS) data up to March 2021, employment in urban sector affected by pandemic has recovered almost to the pre-pandemic level.
• According to Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) data, formalization of jobs continued during second COVID wave; adverse impact of COVID on formalization of jobs much lower than during the first COVID wave.
• Expenditure on social services (health, education and others) by Centre and States as a proportion of GDP increased from 6.2 % in 2014-15 to 8.6% in 2021-22 (BE)
• As per the National Family Health Survey-5:
  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) came down to 2 in 2019-21 from 2.2 in 2015-16
  • Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), under-five mortality rate and institutional births have improved in 2019-21 over year 2015-16

• Under Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM), 83 districts have become ‘Har Ghar Jal’ districts.
• Increased allotment of funds to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) to provide buffer for unorganized labor in rural areas during the pandemic.