Retail Inflation rate climbs to 4.91 percent in November 2021

Retail Inflation rate climbs to 4.91 percent in November 2021 According to data issued by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on December 13, the country's retail inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 4.91 percent in November 2021. Inflation has grown progressively, reaching 4.48 percent in October 2021. However, there has been a year-on-year decrease, with the rate of inflation in November 2020 being 6.93 percent. According to government data, the sequential increase was driven by an increase in food prices, notably vegetables. The overall Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) increased to 1.87 percent from 0.85 percent the previous month. In November, both the CFPI and CPI-based inflation rates were greater in metropolitan areas of the country than in rural areas. Retail inflation increased by 5.54 percent in urban areas and 4.29 percent in rural areas, respectively, while food inflation increased by 3.33 percent in urban areas and 1.09 percent in rural areas. Retail inflation has been below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) six percent goal for the sixth month in a row. The Centre has authorised the central bank to maintain a retail inflation rate of 4% with a 2% upper and lower margin on either side for the next five years, until March 2026. When preparing its bimonthly fiscal policy, the RBI considers CPI data. On December 8, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold the repo rate unchanged at 4% for the ninth time in a row. Notably, the RBI forecasted 5.3 percent CPI inflation for fiscal year 2021-22. This includes projections of 5.1 percent in the second quarter, 4.5 percent in the third quarter, and 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter, with risks broadly balanced. Retail inflation is expected to be 5.2 percent between April and June 2022-23.